Case study · Retrospective hindcast

Two Keʻeaumoku blocks. Two discoveries. Two KILO reads.

Walmart Keʻeaumoku, where construction began in 2002, and The Park on Keʻeaumoku, permitted in 2022 — two parcels about 150 meters apart — both encountered iwi kūpuna, and both were reshaped, under public dispute, after the fact. Run KILO on the two parcels today and it returns a read of each. Here are both, exactly as the engine gives them — including what it could not confirm.

The method

A hindcast, run honestly.

KILO did not exist when either project broke ground — but the parcels did, and so did the screening logic the engine encodes: ahupuaʻa cultural sensitivity, coastal-substrate risk, historic-property density, heiau viewsheds. KILO reads the underlying land, not the buildings on it now, so a run today reflects what a parcel-level pre-fieldwork screen would have surfaced before excavation.

A retrospective only counts if you commit to the result before you see it. This page publishes the scores the engine actually returns — and is candid where the engine's confidence is low.

The reads

Two parcels, rated two points apart.

Walmart Keʻeaumoku · TMK 1-2-3-016-044 · 10.5 acres · discovery 2003
51
Moderate risk · confidence 78%
Proceed with caution
Driven by cultural-resource exposure, HRS §6E. Top signal: Ahupuaʻa cultural inheritance. Four rules fired.
The Park on Keʻeaumoku · TMK 1-2-3-018-052 · 3.5 acres · discovery 2022
53
Moderate risk · confidence 66%
Proceed with caution
Driven by cultural-resource exposure, HRS §6E. Top signal: Coastal sand substrate. The same four rules fired.

Same ahupuaʻa, same coastal zone, the same four rules — and the engine landed the two parcels within two points of each other. For a retrospective that is the signal that matters: not one dramatic score, but a consistent read across two parcels that shared the same outcome.

The counterfactual

Walmart had been screened. Every screen came back empty.

The Walmart parcel is the sharper of the two tests. When iwi kūpuna were found there during construction, it was not for lack of looking. In Hui Mālama I Nā Kūpuna O Hawaiʻi Nei v. Wal-Mart, the Hawaiʻi Intermediate Court of Appeals reviewed the project's permitting and recorded that the parcel had already been through multiple environmental and archaeological assessments — subsurface excavations, borings, and testing among them — none of which had flagged a significant burial or historic site. The court found there was "no factual basis to know or reasonably believe" the project "may affect" a burial site.

That is the conventional screen — point samples in the ground — certified clean by a court. KILO reads the same parcel at MODERATE, rising to HIGH for commercial earthwork, because it reads a different signal: a filled coastal marshland inside ahupuaʻa ʻo Waikīkī, on the substrate where inadvertent discoveries most commonly occur. The land carried what the boreholes missed. The Park is a different test — there, a permit-stage assessment did surface the first iwi kūpuna — which is why this retrospective leans on Walmart: it is the parcel where every screen came back empty.

The reasoning

How KILO reached these reads — step by step.

KILO is a reasoning model, not a black box. Every score traces, in order, from public facts about a parcel to a final verdict. This is the chain it ran for both Keʻeaumoku blocks — and each section below substantiates a step.

01Read the parcel from public data
From the TMK alone, KILO pulls the parcel boundary, its ahupuaʻa, its coastal resource zone and elevation, soil, sewer status, and heiau in the viewshed — all from public agency sources (Hawaiʻi Statewide GIS, USDA, FEMA, the City). No private data; no burial locations, ever.
02Fire the inference rules those facts trigger
Each fact that carries cultural-resource risk trips a named rule. Four fired on each block, and every rule reports the evidence it fired on. The full four are laid out below.
03Weigh each rule, combine into a score
Each rule contributes a signal — a stronger signal for a stronger correlate of exposure. The engine combines those signals into a composite score and a risk band. Both blocks landed MODERATE — 51 and 53.
04Re-score for the actual disturbance footprint
Risk depends on how much ground a project moves, so the engine re-scores the parcel for every plausible footprint. The composite sits near the lightest end; full commercial earthwork — what both projects were — escalates the read to HIGH, 64 and 66.
05Roll up to a verdict — with a confidence beside it
The domains roll up into one due-diligence verdict — here, Proceed with caution, driven by cultural-resource exposure under HRS §6E. A separate confidence score reports how sure the engine is of the read — distinct from how risky the parcel is, and the place the two reads genuinely differ.
What you build

A 972-unit tower is not a sewer lateral.

KILO scores every plausible disturbance footprint. Both composites — 51 and 53 — sit at the light end of the range, near a sewer-lateral tie-in. Neither project was that. A big-box store and a twin-tower complex are full site grading, commercial earthwork — and on that row both parcels read HIGH.

Walmart Keʻeaumoku · score by disturbance footprintComposite 51 · TMK 1-2-3-016-044
Sewer lateral / minor utility connectREALISTIC≤2 ft · realistic pathMOD
Utility trenching2–4 ft · estimateMOD
Pool / spa installation8–12 ft · estimateHIGH
Single-family foundation4–8 ft · estimateHIGH
Septic + leach field3–10 ft · estimateHIGH
Full site grading / commercial earthworkshallow, wide · estimateHIGH
Cesspool replacement9+ ft · estimateHIGH
The Park on Keʻeaumoku · score by disturbance footprintComposite 53 · TMK 1-2-3-018-052
Sewer lateral / minor utility connectREALISTIC≤2 ft · realistic pathMOD
Utility trenching2–4 ft · estimateHIGH
Pool / spa installation8–12 ft · estimateHIGH
Single-family foundation4–8 ft · estimateHIGH
Septic + leach field3–10 ft · estimateHIGH
Full site grading / commercial earthworkshallow, wide · estimateHIGH
Cesspool replacement9+ ft · estimateHIGH
The engine tags sewer lateral as the realistic path on both — its wastewater-infrastructure default. For a commercial development that default does not apply: the governing row is full site grading, and it reads HIGH on each parcel — 64 and 66.
Why

Four rules fired on each block — the same four.

Every KILO score is traced. The same four rules carried both parcels; their reasoning is quoted from the assessments, with a note on how each one weighed in.

Ahupuaʻa cultural inheritance
Both parcels sit within ahupuaʻa ʻo Waikīkī, modeled at high cultural sensitivity — a tier derived from the density of documented historic-property references in the surrounding area. Boundary from Hawaiʻi Statewide GIS (OHA / SHPD).
A leading signal on both — the top contributor on the Walmart parcel, and fired with high confidence on each.
Coastal sand substrate — regional cultural-resource sensitivity prior
A coastal-influenced location — the documented Oʻahu substrate where inadvertent discoveries most commonly occur during forced ground disturbance. Cultural-monitor presence is best practice for any ground disturbance in this substrate, regardless of survey findings.
A leading signal on both — the top contributor on The Park. Its confidence diverged sharply between the two parcels; the next section explains why.
Heiau viewshed
Both parcels sit within line-of-sight of the Puʻuwaina (Punchbowl) heiau and crater rim. A context signal — the sightline is part of the cultural landscape, not a band-determining factor.
A minor context signal — present on both, not band-determining.
Regulatory cascade
Triggers mandatory SHPD review. Ground disturbance cannot proceed without a compliance pathway.
A mandatory regulatory gate — fired with near-certainty on both.
What the engine didn't know

The Park's read is softer — and the assessment says exactly why.

The Park scored 53 to Walmart's 51 — but at 66% confidence against Walmart's 78%, and the engine names exactly why: USDA's soil service returned nothing for The Park's parcel, so the substrate could not be confirmed and the coastal-substrate rule ran on the coastal-influence proxy alone. That gap is not the land. It is a data gap.

Read the distinction carefully — it hit confidence, not score. The substrate rule still contributed its full weight; The Park still rated two points above Walmart. The engine did not under-rate the parcel; it under-knew it, and disclosed the shortfall in the open, in the same report. A retrospective that buried that would not be worth running.

The exposure

The panels sized the scenario. Both blocks lived it.

KILO does not decide what SHPD will require — only §6E-42 review does. What it does is size the process a parcel at this risk band could trigger:

Walmart · if an inadvertent discovery occurs
Construction halts on contact with previously-undocumented remains; the timeline stretches to 43–67 months.
The Park · if an inadvertent discovery occurs
The same scenario, scaled to a smaller parcel: the timeline stretches to 36–60 months.

Those figures are not forecasts — they are the cost of skipping the pre-decision survey that would have pre-empted a discovery. Both blocks encountered iwi kūpuna once their projects were under way; both were redesigned amid public dispute. That is the inadvertent-discovery scenario, lived — twice — and the panels describe it years before anyone breaks ground.

The point

Screening protects more than the schedule.

Run before acquisition — or before the grading permit — these reads would have put a cultural monitor and an archaeological inventory survey in front of the excavation, which is exactly what the coastal-substrate and regulatory-cascade rules indicate.

That sequencing protects iwi kūpuna from inadvertent disturbance, and it protects the project from the freeze. Pre-decision diligence is not a way around the cultural-resource process — it is a way to meet it on time, and with respect, instead of colliding with it mid-construction.

Scope & honesty

What this page is, and is not.

This is an advisory pre-fieldwork screening — not an Archaeological Inventory Survey, and not a substitute for SHPD review under HRS Chapter 6E. KILO models cultural-resource sensitivity from public empirical correlates — never as a presence claim at any specific point. It does not ingest, aggregate, or store iwi kūpuna locations from any source.

And one limit this page cannot escape: two parcels is not calibration. Two hindcasts that agree are a reason to run the real test — KILO across every documented Oʻahu discovery, against a matched control set of parcels with no discovery history — not a substitute for it.

Source — the Walmart parcel's prior-assessment history and the "may affect" finding are drawn from Hui Mālama I Nā Kūpuna O Hawaiʻi Nei v. Wal-Mart, No. 28477 (Haw. Ct. App. Dec. 16, 2009).

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